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Egypt and Sudan: The Dangers of the Gray Zone


Did Egypt and Sudan enter, by word and deed, the gray zone, between peace and war, after the failure of the Kinshasa negotiations?

This question looms on the horizon amid a strange international and international silence, except from the brothers, as is the case with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has taken a clear and explicit position on the serious threats facing a hundred million Egyptians, and about twenty million Sudanese, threats that start from thirst and drought, and reach The limit of the collapse of the Ethiopian dam, in which the ideas of the Renaissance can not be behind in any way, especially since sustainable development in the African continent is a collective action, not an individual, and just as the spirit of cooperation saves nations and peoples in their overall framework, as was the case in Europe after the war Second World War, the instability, in turn, will generate losses for everyone.

Hours ago, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi spoke, using a language that combines soft and hard power at the same time, as he described the Ethiopians as brothers, and history testifies that the man did not maneuver or rotate at all, because he repeatedly spoke about Ethiopia’s right to development, growth and prosperity, and Egypt fell well. The intention of the Declaration of Principles agreement in 2015 and shared with Sudan, but it seems that the one addressed to them was in no way at the level of brotherhood required and desired, and that is why the last part of the Egyptian President’s statements was proceeding in a framework that was unfair and contrary to the calm consensual solutions, and put the remaining options on the table of events In the event that the incomprehensible and unjustified Ethiopian stubbornness continues.

On the Sudanese side, the statements of the Minister of Irrigation, Yasser Abbas, did not differ much from what Sisi said, as he indicated that Sudan’s options are open, from resorting to the Security Council to other known tools, and their expected results in advance.

Are we at the eleventh hour, or is it already the last quarter hour?

The statements issued by Ethiopia confirm the intentions of the Ethiopians to proceed with the second filling stage, thus without any agreement or coordination between the parties downstream, and without the slightest heed of many warnings related to the body of the dam and the degree of dangers around it, the safety of the operation process, leading to direct harm. Expected for Sudan and Egypt.

The Ethiopian mentality seems to have concluded playing its cards through the idea of ​​winning the game completely, and let those who are harmed go to what he wants to be harmed, a thinking that is not without international playing cards, and powers that seem to be hiding or hidden, and if everyone is aware of them in one way or another, then what Today it is said that a whisper in the deceiver, tomorrow it will be called from the rooftops.

Ten years of futile marathon negotiations, in which Ethiopia took advantage of the conditions of confusion that accompanied the illusion known as the Arab Spring in Egypt, in favor of the conditions of Sudan that Al-Bashir’s fundamentalism led to internal strife, and while the brothers and brothers were fighting, it seemed as if there were those in Ethiopia who performed ablution with blood to meet The Egyptian and Sudanese sides.

Ethiopia with unlimited arrogance rejects any real effective mediation, especially by the Quartet proposed by Sudan, and the reason for this is undoubtedly its prior realization that it is not right, and that international condemnation will follow, and this may have been what the former US President Donald Trump called, and in a moment of truthfulness. And it also bears being an invitation to punish the Ethiopians for rejecting his efforts, and for their shameful withdrawal at the last moments to sign a binding agreement, to declare that the other party may resort to removing this dam from existence once and for all.

The Ethiopian intentions are clear and not hidden from anyone, and perhaps the television statements of the past few days by the Ethiopian Foreign Minister have exposed the existing and upcoming Addis Ababa plans, as he spoke about selling the excess of the Nile water after the dam is full.

What Ethiopia is seeking is unprecedented, and an attempt to change the paths of geography since the beginning of history, which could create a similar situation in many parts of the world, which ultimately indicates a state of turmoil and security unrest, but rather a threat to global peace and security.

Throughout the past years, Ethiopia has eluded itself by engaging everyone in futile negotiations, and pointing out the absurdity that these rounds were devoid of two main conditions, essential to any serious negotiation process:

The first: an adequate balance of goodwill between its parties.

The second: a real and sincere desire to reach a just, balanced and lasting settlement of the existing dispute that takes into account the interests of all parties.

The view of the Ethiopian dam crisis draws attention to the tepid and even cold attitudes of international powers, from Moscow that seeks to return to ancient African squares of influence, through Beijing, which dreams of Africa’s raw materials, in exchange for its hot and free financial loans from the conditions of its American counterpart, up to the European Union, including In it and whoever is in it from the countries that still have influence in the continent, especially France.

As for the US position, it is very clear, as President Joseph Biden’s steps are consistent with Barack Obama’s policy, known for behind-the-scenes leadership, and a reluctance to engage deeply in solving the world’s problems.


No one will benefit from the burning of the situation, and that is why one hopes that in moments of rationality, they will change the situation and change the character so that everyone blasphemes together towards the coast of safety, instead of sinking the boat with it, not to mention the sparks that will inflict many, regionally and internationally, and it is sufficient to look at the economic losses that have befallen The world, within a few days of disrupting navigation in the Suez Canal, to appreciate the reality of what the region may be heading towards unconsciously and with a catastrophic dash into the unknown.

All published articles represent the opinion of her authors only.